🔗 Share this article

Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.